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Online Ad Growth Comparisons

The numbers are changing fast.

Two weeks ago eMarketer revised its US online advertising spending growth rate numbers for 2009, and it wasn’t alone.

Due to the rapidly changing economic conditions, a number of the leading sources that track—and predict—online advertising have been revising their numbers, too.

It can be difficult to keep up. So here is an overview of what everyone is now estimating.

To start with, eMarketer had predicted an increase of 8.9% for 2009, but now predicts that the rate of growth for US Internet ad spending in 2009 will be approximately one-half the rate of growth for 2008—only 4.5% this year.

But how does that compare to what other sources are predicting?

Well, some are much lower, and others are higher.

Starting at the low end, UBS foresees a disheartening 6% drop in growth for 2009, Oppenheimer & Co. foresees a 1.8% fall and Cowen and Company is also on the negative side at -0.9%.

Several other sources are barely on the plus side of growth for this year. Barclays predicts a meager 2.3% increase from 2008 and Jack Myers 2.9%.

Bernstein Research is a little more optimistic with a forecast of 3.8% growth. With a brighter outlook, Morgan Stanley says US online ad spending will grow at nearly a 10% rate and ZenithOptimedia is predicting a rosy 18.1% jump for 2009—that is unless they too revise their numbers down. [eMarketer]

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